Sunday, September 7, 2008

Global Warming -- Good Science or Hype?

The climate has been changing my whole life, and probably longer (forgive my dry attempt at humor). The evidence is clear that the climate is warming, some due to natural factors, and some due to man made factors.

I think what few people understand are the natural processes which shed CO2 from the atmosphere, and their exponential nature.

Snowball Earth

There is good evidence that in the Neoproterozoic period cooling resulted in a period of total global freeze. Since water vapor would have completely condensed, the lack of precipitation left the Earth's greenhouse gas buildup to go unchecked. It is theorized that at it's peak the Earth's atmosphere contained up to 10 percent CO2. Once a greenhouse gas tipping point, or some other climatic event occurred the ice melted very rapidly and violent storms over centuries washed the CO2 from the atmosphere leaving geologic evidence of a massive layer of cap carbonate rock.

My point is that we do not know yet how water vapor, which is a more significant force in global warming, will regulate CO2 absorption. It might be that this is not a runaway event, but a self limiting natural process. Certainly there were geological time periods of great volcanic activity which produced a more CO2 rich atmosphere.

But, there are others who post here who know more about climatology than I.

I understand the framework of doubt to be;

  1. Do we fully understand the role of CO2 in global warming? Heinz Hug (In other words, CO2 absorbs all radiation available to it in about ten meters. More CO2 only shortens the distance, which is not an increase in temperature. In other words, the first 20 percent of the CO2 in the air does most of what CO2 does, and it doesn't do that much.)
  2. What role do ocean have in regulating and creating an equilibrium of atmospheric CO2? Oceans?
  3. What is the relationship between CO2 and water vapor, since atmospheric water vapor has more effect on global temperature. Water Vapor?
  4. CO2 can only absorb 8% of radiation frequencies. Greenhouse Effect has a limit!
  5. There is dispute in what role the Sun has in contributing to global warming. Sun?
The other factor to consider is that in the geologic past when temperatures increased, the carrying capacity of the Earth increased. It was during ice ages when populations global extinctions occurred. "Cold is bad, Warm is good!"

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